Birds sing, buds open, prices drop

Computer Life column for
by
Richard Gordon

When I was a kid, this was the week when I'd be all excited: the major league baseball season was fresh and new, anyone could still win the pennant.

When I became a suburbanite, this became the week I'd begin waking to the buzz of lawn mowers.

Now, each year, I watch the price on computing gear drop like a rock in March through June. Ah, spring: When a young man's fancy turns to computer purchases.

Just as surely as mortgage rates increase or college students migrate to Daytona Beach and Padre Island every spring, computer prices fall more sharply every spring. People who have bought a computer in the past year roll their eyes at how much prices have dropped.

The general trend is that the speed, power, and memory of the new systems gets better and better while the relative price keeps dropping. However, there are two "bumps" that appear each year to distort the general trends of more power and lower prices. The first is holiday shopping season and the second is back to school season. During those times, manufacturers' prices tend to drop less.

For example, in January 1996, I took delivery on a 100MHz 16M system with which I was generally very pleased. In March, the price on "my system" dropped from $2,500 to $2,195.

Because computer technology and prices change so radically over the course of a year, you have to discipline yourself not to think of a computer as a "durable good." If you need one or want one, then get one.

You're waiting for Windows98 or Intel's new chips? That strategy works, too. Because prices are always dropping, the longer you wait, in general, the more computer you can buy. However, if you took my advice in December about postponing your computer purchase until after the holiday surge and still need a computer, now's as good a time as any to go shopping.

The more things change

In the summer of 1996, the University of Delaware told incoming freshpersons who wanted a computer at school to bring at least a 75MHz system. Last summer, UD suggested that students buying a new system look at computers rated with a speed of 166MHz and faster.

I don't know what my colleagues will recommend this year; however, right now, for the same amount of money you would have spent last summer, you can get a system that's 40% faster.

Last June and July, several manufacturers began bundling computers, software, modems, monitors, and printers into special $1,500-$1,600 deals based on computers with 16M of RAM and a clock speed of 166MHz.

Last week, one area store listed a 233MHz system with 32M of RAM on sale for $1,100--including monitor, modem, and color printer. Many stores and on-line vendors regularly sell comparable computer bundles for under $1,600.

These excellent lower end systems will do for most grown-ups who want to use productivity tools, e-mail, and the Web. But in order to keep up with your teenager's games and schoolwork, you may need to spend what I did two years ago.

For example, Gateway sells a 300MHz system for $1,999 plus shipping that is 200% faster and has 100% more RAM, a larger monitor, and 300% more disk space than the system I bought 26 months ago. It also includes a DVD drive for CD-ROMs and the newer DVD disks.

And if you want a scanner so that you can convert photos, kids' drawings, and typed text into computer files, instead of paying the $950 I did in 1996, you can add one for $50 - $200.

Want a printer, too? In 1996, I paid $378 for a moderate quality inkjet printer. Comparable printers now sell for $180 - $250.

Want an Iomega Zip drive so that you can work with large files and expedite file back-up? If you order one in advance, many manufacturers will add one for $99 and toss in two 100M cartridges to boot.

Prices will continue to drop. But if you worry about it, you'll go crazy. There will always be a better deal six months after you bought the computer.

However, the next four months should be a good time to shop for a new computer.

Copyright © 1998, The News Journal Company

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